The Question That Predicts Campaign Success: "Who Will Go First?"

I can predict a church capital campaign's success within the first few weeks—often before the public launch, sometimes before the campaign leadership team even meets for the first time.

The question isn't "How much can we raise?" or "Do we have enough generous givers in our congregation?"

It's simpler and more revealing: "Who will go first?"

After guiding over 100 campaigns across denominational lines, I'm convinced that leadership giving—both its timing and its size—is the single most predictive factor in campaign outcomes. Not your vision statement. Not your feasibility study results. Not even your goal amount.

Who gives first, and how much they give, signals to every subsequent household whether this campaign is a genuine movement of the Spirit or merely an organizational initiative.

Leadership has two dimensions

Most churches think about leadership giving only in terms of size—the major gifts that anchor the campaign and set the standard for everyone else. That matters enormously.

But leadership is also about timing.

Church council members, elders, deacons, and the pastor who give early—even modest amounts relative to the overall goal—demonstrate spiritual conviction in a way that the broader congregation simply can't. They're the shepherds saying "We believe God is calling us to this, and we're responding first with our own commitments before asking you to discern yours."

That witness is irreplaceable.

Here's my benchmark: I want to see the church council, elders, and pastoral staff give early in the process AND see the top three gifts from the gift profile chart committed before the campaign cabinet or leadership team even meets for the first time.

Why? Because when campaign leaders walk into that initial meeting and discover that church leadership has already responded with their own commitments and the top leadership gifts are secured, they're joining a campaign that's already gaining momentum. They're participating in something God is already doing, not trying to manufacture enthusiasm from scratch.

That spiritual and psychological shift changes everything.

The campaign that starts behind

Compare that to the more common scenario: A church recruits an impressive campaign cabinet, gathers them for a commissioning meeting, and asks them to "help us reach our goal." Only then does the cabinet discover that the council hasn't fully committed and there are no significant lead gifts yet secured.

The cabinet feels set up to fail. And often, they're right.

Because leadership giving isn't just about stewardship—it's about witness. When the people in spiritual leadership won't lead with their own commitments, it raises an unspoken question in every member's heart: "If the elders and pastor aren't responding sacrificially, is this really what God is calling us to?"

The pastor's unique role

The pastor's early commitment carries particular weight. Not because it needs to be the largest gift—it almost certainly won't be—but because it demonstrates pastoral conviction.

When a pastor stands before the congregation and says "My family has prayed about this, and we've made our three-year commitment," it communicates something profound: This isn't just an organizational initiative I'm leading professionally. This is a spiritual movement I'm participating in personally.

That kind of pastoral leadership gives the congregation permission to enter into prayerful discernment themselves.

I've watched church campaigns stall when pastors treated them as programs they were managing rather than movements they were joining. And I've watched campaigns exceed their goals when pastors led from a place of personal conviction and sacrificial response.

Going first is an act of faith

Lead donors in the church context—whether council members giving early or families making top-tier commitments—are taking a public risk. They're signaling faith before the outcome is certain. They're making themselves vulnerable in community.

That act of faith invites others into the same posture of trust.

I've watched church campaigns stall not because the congregation lacked capacity, but because no one was willing to go first. And I've watched campaigns far exceed their goals because a few leaders stepped forward early in faith and created a gravitational pull that made generous response feel like the natural outcome of discipleship.

The hard diagnostic question

If your church council or elders won't give first—or if you can't secure your top leadership gifts before engaging your broader campaign team—you don't have a fundraising problem.

You have a spiritual alignment problem. Or a trust problem. Or a readiness problem.

The campaign won't solve those issues. It will expose them.

Leadership giving is diagnostic. It reveals whether your church leadership has actually discerned God's call clearly enough to respond sacrificially. And if they haven't, no amount of campaign materials or compelling presentations will compensate.

What the New Testament shows us

The pattern of going first appears throughout Scripture. Paul consistently highlights the sacrificial giving of the Macedonian churches as an example that prompts others to generosity. The early church in Acts sees leaders selling property and bringing the proceeds to the apostles—visible acts of commitment that shape the community's culture.

Leadership giving has always been about witness. About going first so others can follow. About demonstrating faith in ways that invite others into the same posture of trust and generosity.

Timing matters as much as size

In my research on capital campaigns and stewardship formation, I keep returning to this question of sequence. The church campaigns that result in genuine congregational transformation—not just reaching financial goals—almost always begin with spiritual leaders willing to go first.

To pray first. To discern first. To commit first. To make themselves vulnerable in community before asking others to do the same.

The timing of their giving matters as much as the size.

Because church capital campaigns aren't ultimately about buildings or budgets. They're about forming disciples in the practice of sacrificial generosity. And that formation begins with leaders who are willing to demonstrate what faithful response looks like.

An invitation to reflection

If you're considering a capital campaign, or if you're in the early stages of one, take a moment to ask:

Have your spiritual leaders—council, elders, pastor—made their own commitments first? Not as a fundraising tactic, but as a genuine response to what they believe God is calling your congregation toward?

Have your top leadership gifts been secured before you've asked your broader campaign team to engage?

If not, it may be worth pausing to create the space for that leadership witness to emerge. Because the campaigns that truly transform congregations don't begin with compelling cases or ambitious goals.

They begin with leaders willing to go first.